Sports Betting Tutorials

NFL Awards Bets: How to Spot Value in MVP, Rookie of the Year, and More

Betting on NFL awards like MVP, Rookie of the Year, and Defensive Player of the Year offers unique opportunities for value that you might not find in traditional game betting. These bets are fun, long-term wagers that keep you invested throughout the season, but they also require careful analysis. It’s not just about who’s the most talented—narrative, team success, and staying healthy are just as important when picking award winners.

So, how do you spot value in the crowded field of NFL awards? It’s all about timing, understanding the market, and reading between the lines of what actually influences voters.

How NFL Awards Betting Works

NFL awards betting is a type of futures bet where you wager on who will win a specific award at the end of the season. Popular awards you can bet on include:

  • Most Valuable Player (MVP)
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY)
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY)
  • Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)
  • Coach of the Year (COY)

The odds on these awards typically open before the season starts and adjust as the year progresses based on player performance, team success, and media narratives.

Key Strategies for Betting on NFL Awards

1. Focus on Narrative

One of the biggest factors in NFL awards is the narrative surrounding players. While statistics are important, voters often look at a player’s storyline—what obstacles did they overcome, how crucial were they to their team’s success, and did they perform when it mattered most?

  • Example: In 2019, Lamar Jackson’s MVP campaign wasn’t just about his stats. His incredible season was framed by the narrative of him revolutionizing the quarterback position with his dual-threat ability. That storyline played a huge role in securing his win.

Tip: Follow the media buzz. Players who are consistently featured in MVP conversations early on are more likely to maintain momentum throughout the season, even if others are statistically close.

2. Team Success Matters (Especially for MVP)

For an MVP to win, they almost always have to be on a winning team. Voters tend to favor players from teams that perform well, especially those that make the playoffs. This is true for almost all NFL awards, but it’s especially critical for MVP.

  • Tip: Focus on players from teams with legitimate Super Bowl or deep playoff potential. Even if a player has an outstanding season, they’ll have a tough time winning MVP if their team is under .500.

3. Spot Value Early for Rookies

Rookie awards like Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year can offer tremendous value, especially if you get in early before the oddsmakers adjust. Keep an eye on high draft picks and rookies who are stepping into positions where they’ll get significant playing time right away.

  • Example: In 2020, Justin Herbert wasn’t even the starting quarterback for the Chargers at the start of the season, but once he got the job, his OROY odds shot up. If you’d bet on him early, you would have secured much better odds than waiting until halfway through the season.

Tip: Look for rookies in positions of need on their teams, particularly quarterbacks, wide receivers, and running backs, who often have an easier path to racking up stats.

Breaking Down the Top NFL Awards

1. Most Valuable Player (MVP)

MVP is the most prestigious NFL award, and it almost always goes to a quarterback. In fact, quarterbacks have won the award nearly every year in recent memory. The exceptions are rare, so if you’re betting on MVP, start by narrowing your focus to elite QBs.

  • What to Look For: The MVP winner typically leads their team to a top playoff seed, puts up impressive stats (4,500+ passing yards, 30+ touchdowns), and has a signature moment or game that sticks in voters’ minds.

2. Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY)

Quarterbacks have the best shot at winning OROY, but running backs and wide receivers also have a chance if they’re in high-usage roles. Look for rookies who are stepping into starting roles immediately, especially on teams with offenses that rely heavily on their position.

  • What to Look For: Target players drafted in the first two rounds who are expected to start from Day 1. Watch training camp reports and preseason performances to see who’s earning their coach’s trust.

3. Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)

DPOY is typically awarded to dominant pass rushers or shutdown cornerbacks who have a significant impact on games. Team success isn’t as important for this award, but the player’s individual stats—like sacks, tackles for loss, or interceptions—are critical.

  • What to Look For: Defensive players who lead the league in sacks, forced fumbles, or interceptions tend to have the inside track for DPOY. Pay attention to standout players on defensive lines and secondaries.

4. Coach of the Year (COY)

Coach of the Year often goes to a coach who either leads a team to a surprisingly successful season or who guides their team through adversity. It’s not always the coach of the best team, but rather the coach whose team exceeds expectations.

  • What to Look For: Focus on coaches leading teams that make big improvements from the previous year or overcome significant injuries to key players.

Best Times to Place NFL Award Bets

1. Before the Season Starts

The best value in award betting often comes before the season begins. This is when odds are highest, and you can identify emerging storylines that might take hold once the games begin. The downside is you’re betting without seeing any actual games, so it’s more speculative.

2. After the First Few Weeks

The first month of the season is when you can start to spot trends but still get decent value. By this point, you’ll know which players are emerging as frontrunners, but the odds won’t have fully shortened yet.

  • Tip: Jump on a player whose performance outpaces their preseason expectations early on, but don’t wait too long, as the odds will drop quickly.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

1. Ignoring Injuries

Injuries are the quickest way to derail an award bet, especially with long-term wagers like MVP or Rookie of the Year. Always keep an eye on injury reports, and avoid betting on players with a history of missing games.

2. Betting Too Late

By midseason, the odds on frontrunners are usually very short, meaning you won’t get much value. It’s best to place these bets early when the odds are longer and the potential payout is greater.

Final Tips for Betting on NFL Awards

NFL awards betting is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to follow the narrative, back players on winning teams, and jump on rookies with the potential to make an immediate impact. And remember—timing is everything. The earlier you spot value, the better your chances of cashing in.

  • Focus on players in strong narratives—storylines can sway voters.
  • Look for rookies in high-usage roles—early playing time is key for OROY and DROY.
  • Jump on player awards early in the season to lock in value before odds shift.
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