The Race to Points bet in NFL betting is one of the most exciting and fast-paced markets available. It allows bettors to wager on which team will be the first to reach a certain point total—usually in increments like 10, 20, or 30 points. This type of bet is perfect for those who want to focus on early scoring or capitalize on high-powered offenses without worrying about the final game outcome.
Betting on Race to Points is all about finding teams with explosive offenses, understanding matchups, and predicting how games will unfold in the early stages. In this guide, we’ll break down how to bet on Race to Points, what factors to consider, and how to consistently find value by targeting the right teams.
What Is a Race to Points Bet?
A Race to Points bet is a wager on which team will reach a set number of points first in a game. The most common point totals offered are:
- Race to 10 points
- Race to 20 points
- Race to 30 points
For example, if you place a bet on the Buffalo Bills to win the Race to 20 points, your bet cashes once they score 20 points before their opponent, regardless of the final outcome of the game.
Race to Points betting can offer value, particularly when you know one team has a clear offensive advantage, or when certain teams tend to start games fast and accumulate points early.
Key Strategies for Betting on NFL Race to Points
1. Target High-Scoring Teams
The first and most obvious strategy is to target teams that score frequently and quickly. Teams with explosive offenses are far more likely to win the Race to Points, especially against weaker defenses. Look for teams that consistently score touchdowns on their opening drives or within the first few quarters.
- Example: The Kansas City Chiefs are an ideal team for Race to Points bets due to their high-powered offense led by Patrick Mahomes. They often score early and can reach 10, 20, or 30 points quicker than most teams.
Tip: Check a team’s average points scored per game and their first-half scoring statistics. Teams that put up a lot of points early in games are prime candidates for Race to Points bets.
2. Evaluate the Opponent’s Defense
Just as important as a team’s offensive power is the quality of the opposing defense. Betting on a high-scoring team is only valuable if the defense they’re facing struggles to prevent points. Teams with weak secondaries or poor red-zone defense are more likely to give up early scores, making them ideal targets for Race to Points bets.
- Example: If the Green Bay Packers are playing against a defense ranked in the bottom 10 for points allowed, they’re more likely to win the Race to 20 points.
Tip: Analyze defensive stats like points allowed, turnovers, and third-down conversion rates. Weak defenses often struggle to keep opponents off the scoreboard early in the game.
3. Consider Game Flow and Matchups
Game flow plays a huge role in Race to Points betting. Some games are expected to be shootouts, while others may be more of a defensive grind. You want to target games where both teams are likely to score a lot of points early, particularly if one team has a clear offensive edge.
- Example: A game between the Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals is likely to be high-scoring, making it a good candidate for Race to Points bets, as both teams have fast-paced offenses that can rack up points quickly.
Tip: Research the projected game flow, using factors like team pace, average possessions per game, and offensive efficiency. Games with high-scoring potential give you a better chance of hitting a Race to Points bet.
4. Look for Teams That Start Fast
Certain teams have a reputation for jumping out to early leads, often scoring on their first few drives and controlling the game from the outset. These teams are perfect for Race to Points bets, as they tend to score quickly and consistently early in games.
- Example: The Dallas Cowboys are known for getting off to fast starts, particularly when playing at home. Betting on them to win the Race to 10 or 20 points can be a smart strategy in the right matchup.
Tip: Focus on first-quarter and first-half scoring trends. Teams that consistently score on their opening drives are strong candidates for Race to Points wagers.
5. Hedge Your Bets in Certain Matchups
Race to Points betting can also be used as part of a hedging strategy. If you’ve placed a bet on a team to win outright, but you’re uncertain about their ability to hold on for the entire game, a Race to Points bet can offer an early win even if the team loses later on.
- Example: If you’ve bet on the Baltimore Ravens to win but you’re concerned they might falter in the second half, you can place a Race to 20 points bet on the Ravens to hedge your overall risk.
Tip: Use Race to Points bets to hedge full-game bets, particularly in games where a fast start is likely but the final outcome is less certain.
Best Teams for Race to Points Bets
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are one of the best teams for Race to Points bets due to their explosive offense. They’re often quick to score and can reach 10, 20, or 30 points before most opponents, especially against weaker defenses.
2. Buffalo Bills
With Josh Allen leading the offense, the Bills are another high-scoring team that frequently wins the Race to Points. They have a potent passing attack and can put points on the board quickly.
3. Green Bay Packers
When Aaron Rodgers is at the helm, the Packers are a strong candidate for Race to Points bets. Their ability to score early and often makes them a reliable choice, particularly in high-scoring games.
4. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have a high-powered offense and tend to start games fast, especially at home. They’re a solid pick for Race to Points bets, particularly in matchups against weaker defenses.
5. Arizona Cardinals
With their up-tempo offense, the Cardinals are frequently involved in high-scoring games, making them a great team for Race to 20 or 30 points bets. They can score quickly, especially when Kyler Murray is in control of the offense.
Common Mistakes in Race to Points Betting
1. Ignoring Defensive Matchups
While it’s tempting to focus solely on a team’s offense, it’s equally important to consider the strength of the opposing defense. A high-scoring team might struggle against a top-tier defense, making it harder to win the Race to Points.
- Tip: Always analyze the opponent’s defensive stats. Avoid betting on high-scoring teams when they’re facing elite defenses, particularly those that excel in the red zone.
2. Overestimating Point Totals
Betting on higher point totals like Race to 30 points can be tempting due to the higher payouts, but these bets are riskier and less likely to hit. Stick to lower totals like 10 or 20 points unless the matchup strongly suggests a high-scoring game.
- Tip: Bet conservatively on Race to Points, especially when teams are evenly matched or when defenses are involved. The Race to 10 or 20 points often offers better value than trying to hit 30.
3. Betting on Underdogs Without Offensive Power
While underdogs can occasionally pull off surprises, betting on a team that lacks offensive firepower to win the Race to Points is a risky strategy. Underdogs are more likely to fall behind early, making it harder for them to win this bet.
- Tip: Stick to teams with reliable offenses, even if you’re betting on underdogs. A team that struggles to score consistently is unlikely to win a Race to Points bet.
Final Thoughts on Betting on NFL Race to Points
Race to Points betting offers a fun, fast-paced way to engage with NFL games, allowing you to focus on early scoring and high-powered offenses. By targeting fast-starting teams, evaluating defensive matchups, and using game flow analysis, you can find value in this unique market and consistently cash in on these bets.
- Target high-scoring teams: Teams like the Chiefs and Bills frequently win Race to Points bets due to their explosive offenses.
- Analyze defensive matchups: Weak defenses give up early points, making their opponents more likely to hit Race to 10, 20, or 30 points.
- Consider game flow: Focus on games where both teams are expected to score quickly and frequently.
With the right strategy, Race to Points betting can be a valuable addition to your NFL betting portfolio.