While most football bets focus on offense, special teams and defensive plays can often be game-changers in the NFL. Betting on special teams and defensive scoring introduces a unique twist to your strategy by focusing on field goals, punt returns, and turnovers that lead to touchdowns. These bets often come with attractive odds because they’re harder to predict, but with the right knowledge and understanding, you can find value in these markets.
In this guide, we’ll break down how to bet on special teams and defensive scoring, cover strategies for identifying the best opportunities, and highlight the key factors that influence these types of plays.
What Is Special Teams and Defensive Scoring Betting?
Special teams and defensive scoring bets focus on plays that aren’t directly related to the offense. These wagers might include betting on:
- Field Goals Made: Betting on how many field goals a team or player will make in a game.
- Punt or Kickoff Returns for a Touchdown: Betting on whether a team will score via a punt or kickoff return.
- Defensive Touchdown: Wagering on whether a defense will score, typically through an interception or fumble return.
- Blocked Kicks or Punts: Betting on whether a special teams play will result in a blocked field goal, extra point, or punt.
These bets are popular because of the high payouts and the unpredictability that makes them so thrilling. Special teams and defensive plays can shift the momentum of a game, and by capitalizing on these moments, you can add another layer to your betting strategy.
Key Strategies for Betting on Special Teams and Defensive Scoring
1. Focus on Elite Special Teams Units
Some NFL teams excel at special teams play, particularly when it comes to field goals and kick returns. Teams with a history of making long field goals or consistently returning punts or kicks for touchdowns are ideal for betting on special teams performance.
- Example: The Baltimore Ravens, with kicker Justin Tucker, are known for making long, game-changing field goals. Betting on Tucker to make multiple field goals, especially from long range, often provides good value.
Tip: Look at a team’s field goal percentage, return yardage, and overall special teams rankings before placing a bet. Teams with consistent special teams success offer more reliable outcomes.
2. Identify Teams with Opportunistic Defenses
Defensive scoring often comes from teams that capitalize on turnovers. Teams with strong secondaries or aggressive pass rushers tend to create more interceptions, fumbles, and forced errors. These mistakes can lead to defensive touchdowns, making these teams ideal candidates for defensive scoring bets.
- Example: The Pittsburgh Steelers are known for their aggressive defense that forces turnovers. Betting on the Steelers to score a defensive touchdown could be a smart move, especially against teams with turnover-prone quarterbacks.
Tip: Research defensive stats, such as turnover differential and interceptions. Teams with high numbers in these categories are more likely to create defensive scoring opportunities.
3. Target Games with Poor Special Teams and Offenses
While you can bet on teams to score via special teams and defense, it’s also important to look at teams that are vulnerable to these types of plays. Teams with poor punt coverage, inconsistent field goal units, or turnover-prone offenses are prime candidates to give up big special teams or defensive plays.
- Example: If the Chicago Bears are facing a team with a struggling punt coverage unit, betting on the Bears to return a punt for a touchdown might be worth the risk, especially if they have a speedy returner.
Tip: Analyze teams that give up a lot of special teams yards or struggle to protect the football. The weaker the special teams or offense, the higher the chances of a big play happening.
4. Consider Weather and Game Conditions
Weather can have a significant impact on special teams and defensive plays. Windy, rainy, or snowy conditions make it more likely for kicks to be missed, punts to be mishandled, or turnovers to occur due to poor ball handling.
- Example: In games played in snowy conditions, like those at Lambeau Field, teams are more likely to make mistakes on special teams or defense, increasing the odds of a blocked kick or a fumble recovery for a touchdown.
Tip: Check the weather forecast before the game and adjust your bets accordingly. Extreme conditions often lead to more special teams and defensive scoring opportunities.
Best Teams for Special Teams and Defensive Scoring Bets
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens consistently field one of the best special teams units in the league. Justin Tucker is arguably the most reliable kicker in NFL history, making Baltimore an excellent team to bet on for field goals. They also have a solid return game and opportunistic defense.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have explosive playmakers on both offense and special teams, making them a good target for betting on return touchdowns. Additionally, their defense is capable of forcing turnovers, leading to defensive scoring opportunities.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers boast one of the NFL’s most aggressive defenses, regularly forcing interceptions and fumbles. Betting on the Steelers to score a defensive touchdown, particularly against turnover-prone teams, is a smart play.
4. New England Patriots
The Patriots have a history of excellent special teams play, often finding ways to block punts and return kicks for touchdowns. They also field a disciplined defense that can create scoring chances.
5. San Francisco 49ers
Known for their suffocating defense, the 49ers are a solid choice for defensive scoring bets. They’re particularly adept at forcing fumbles and returning interceptions for touchdowns.
Common Mistakes to Avoid When Betting on Special Teams and Defensive Scoring
1. Overestimating Rare Plays
While special teams and defensive scores are exciting, they’re also relatively rare. Betting too frequently on these outcomes can lead to frustration, as they often occur less than expected.
- Tip: Only bet on special teams and defensive scoring when the matchup strongly suggests the possibility. Don’t rely on these plays to happen in every game.
2. Ignoring Team Trends
Not all teams prioritize special teams, and not all defenses are built to score. Betting on teams without a track record of special teams or defensive scoring can quickly drain your bankroll.
- Tip: Stick to teams that have shown consistent success in these areas, and avoid teams with weak special teams units or passive defenses.
3. Failing to Factor in Game Flow
Game flow is crucial when betting on defensive scores or return touchdowns. Teams that are trailing by large margins often take more risks, leading to turnovers, while conservative teams might avoid making mistakes when they have a lead.
- Tip: Consider how the game is likely to unfold. Teams playing from behind are more likely to commit turnovers, giving their opponents defensive scoring opportunities.
Final Thoughts on Betting on NFL Special Teams and Defensive Scoring
Betting on special teams and defensive scoring adds excitement and variety to your NFL wagering strategy. By focusing on teams with strong special teams units, opportunistic defenses, and favorable conditions, you can increase your chances of hitting on these high-value bets.
- Target elite special teams units: Teams like the Ravens and Patriots consistently offer value in special teams-related bets.
- Look for turnover-prone offenses: Defenses that capitalize on mistakes are your best bet for defensive scores.
- Consider weather conditions: Wind, rain, and snow can lead to special teams and defensive errors that result in big plays.
With the right strategy, betting on special teams and defensive scoring can become a valuable and profitable part of your football betting approach.