If you’re looking for a quick adrenaline rush and fast returns in NFL betting, then first scoring play bets might be right up your alley. This type of wager allows you to predict the very first play that results in points, whether it’s a touchdown, field goal, or even a safety. Unlike full-game bets, where the outcome plays out over four quarters, the first scoring play gives you an immediate stake in the action and a fast result—making it one of the most exciting bets in NFL betting.
But while the bet itself is simple, winning requires strategy, knowledge of the teams, and an understanding of how different factors can influence the outcome.
Let’s dive into the best strategies for betting on the NFL’s first scoring play and how you can increase your chances of hitting it big.
What Is a First Scoring Play Bet?
A first scoring play bet is exactly what it sounds like: a wager on what type of scoring will happen first in an NFL game. The most common options include:
- Touchdown (either team)
- Field goal (either team)
- Safety
You can also bet on which team will score first and the specific type of score. For example, you might bet on the Buccaneers to kick a field goal as the first scoring play of the game. These bets typically come with attractive odds because predicting the exact play that will score first is far from easy, but with the right strategy, you can improve your chances.
Key Strategies for Betting on First Scoring Play
1. Research Team Tendencies
The first and most crucial step in betting on first scoring plays is researching team tendencies. Some teams have a tendency to start fast, scoring touchdowns early, while others tend to settle for field goals on their opening drives. Understanding a team’s offensive approach in the first quarter can give you a significant edge.
- Example: A team like the Kansas City Chiefs, known for their explosive offense, is more likely to score a touchdown on their opening drive, making a touchdown the smarter bet.
- On the flip side, a team with a solid but conservative offense, like the New England Patriots, may opt for a field goal early on if they don’t convert in the red zone.
Tip: Look at the team’s performance in the first quarter over the season. Do they frequently score touchdowns early, or do they tend to stall and kick field goals?
2. Consider Opponent’s Defense
Defense plays just as big a role as offense in determining the first scoring play. A team facing a stout red-zone defense is more likely to settle for a field goal, while a team facing a weak defense might punch it in for six.
- Example: If a team like the Baltimore Ravens is playing a weak red-zone defense, the likelihood of a touchdown as the first score increases.
Tip: Analyze how teams have performed in the red zone throughout the season and compare that with the opposing defense’s ability to stop scoring inside the 20-yard line.
3. Weather Conditions Matter
Weather can significantly affect the first scoring play in an NFL game, particularly if conditions are harsh. High winds, rain, or snow can make it more difficult for teams to execute long passes or kick field goals, potentially leading to early punts or turnovers.
- Example: In games where wind is a major factor, field goals become riskier, and teams might opt for touchdowns or even play more conservatively in the early going.
Tip: Always check the weather forecast before placing a first scoring play bet. Bad weather can make touchdowns less likely and field goals harder to come by.
4. Home Field Advantage
Playing at home can be a big advantage in terms of getting on the scoreboard first. Teams tend to perform better offensively in front of their home crowd, and kickers may also be more comfortable with their home stadium’s wind patterns and field conditions.
- Example: A team like the Green Bay Packers is more comfortable kicking field goals at Lambeau Field, where their kicker is used to the wind and weather conditions. Conversely, visiting teams often struggle with long kicks in those same conditions.
Tip: Favor home teams for the first score in tight matchups, particularly if the kicker has a strong track record at home.
Best Types of First Scoring Play Bets
1. Touchdown First Scoring Play
Touchdowns are often the most popular first scoring play bet, especially for teams with dynamic offenses. However, the odds for this outcome will typically be shorter than other options, especially if you’re betting on teams known for their high-scoring offenses.
- Best Teams to Bet Touchdown: Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers
2. Field Goal First Scoring Play
Field goals tend to offer higher payouts than touchdowns in first scoring play bets. Teams with more conservative offenses, or teams that struggle to convert in the red zone, often settle for field goals early in the game.
- Best Teams to Bet Field Goal: New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns
3. Safety First Scoring Play
The rarest (but highest paying) first scoring play bet is the safety. While it’s a longshot, some bettors love to throw a small amount on the safety option because of the high reward. Safeties are most likely in games where one team has a dominant defense and the other struggles with pass protection or special teams.
- Best Teams to Bet Safety: Teams with elite defenses, such as the Pittsburgh Steelers or Baltimore Ravens, especially when facing a team with a weak offensive line.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
1. Ignoring Team Matchups
It’s easy to get caught up in general trends, but every game is unique. Don’t rely solely on league-wide trends without considering the specific matchup. A team with a great offense might be facing an elite red-zone defense, altering the likelihood of an early touchdown.
2. Betting on the Favorite Blindly
Just because a team is favored to win doesn’t mean they’re the best bet for the first scoring play. Even underdogs can get on the board first with a quick field goal or a long touchdown pass, especially if they have a scripted opening drive that catches the favorite off guard.
3. Overvaluing Long Odds
While it’s tempting to bet on the high payouts associated with rare events like safeties, these outcomes are statistically unlikely. It’s important to balance your desire for a big win with realistic expectations.
Final Thoughts on Betting the First Scoring Play
Betting on the first scoring play in NFL games can be a fast-paced and exciting way to enjoy football betting, but it’s important to do your research and understand the factors that influence the outcome. Team tendencies, opponent defenses, and weather all play a role in determining whether the first score will be a touchdown, field goal, or something else entirely.
- Research team scoring habits: Know if they’re more likely to score touchdowns or settle for field goals early.
- Consider defensive matchups: A strong red-zone defense can lead to field goals instead of touchdowns.
- Check weather and home-field factors: Both can influence kicking accuracy and offensive success.
With a bit of preparation, first scoring play bets can become a profitable and exciting part of your NFL betting strategy.