One of the most effective ways to engage with NFL betting is to focus on total team points. Instead of wagering on the final outcome of the game, you’re betting on how many points a single team will score. This bet offers a level of control, as you don’t need to worry about the opponent’s performance or who wins the game—you’re strictly betting on the ability of one team’s offense to hit a specific point total.
Total team points bets are all about understanding team dynamics, offensive efficiency, and how they perform against specific defenses. In this guide, we’ll dive into the strategies for evaluating team offenses, the factors to consider when placing these bets, and how to consistently improve your chances of winning.
What Is a Total Team Points Bet?
A total team points bet is a wager on the number of points a team will score in a given game. Rather than betting on the combined total of both teams (as you would with an over/under bet), this bet focuses solely on one team’s offensive output.
- Example: The line might be set at Baltimore Ravens over/under 24.5 points. If you believe the Ravens will score 25 points or more, you would take the over. If you think they’ll score 24 points or less, you’d take the under.
Total team points bets can offer value, especially when you have confidence in a team’s offense or see a favorable matchup against a weak defense.
Key Strategies for Betting on Total Team Points
1. Evaluate Offensive Efficiency
The most important factor in betting on total team points is evaluating a team’s offensive efficiency. This refers to how well a team moves the ball, converts third downs, and finishes drives with touchdowns instead of field goals.
- Example: The Kansas City Chiefs, with one of the most efficient offenses in the league, consistently score over their total points line, making them a solid team to bet the over.
Tip: Research a team’s stats, including yards per play, third-down conversion rates, and red zone efficiency. Teams with high metrics in these categories are more likely to hit the over on their total points.
2. Consider the Matchup
Matchups matter in total team points betting. A high-powered offense facing a strong defense might struggle to score, while that same offense could light up the scoreboard against a weak defense. Always consider how a team’s offense matches up against the opposing defense when placing your bet.
- Example: If the Buffalo Bills are playing against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a bottom-tier defense, it’s likely the Bills will surpass their team total. Conversely, facing a defense like the San Francisco 49ers might lead to fewer points.
Tip: Focus on how well the opposing defense defends against a team’s strengths. If a team is pass-heavy, research how well the opponent defends against the pass.
3. Check for Injuries and Key Absences
Injuries to key offensive players can have a massive impact on a team’s ability to score points. If a team’s quarterback or star wide receiver is out, it’s likely that their total points line will be harder to hit. Similarly, injuries to offensive linemen or running backs can disrupt the flow of the offense.
- Example: If Patrick Mahomes is out for the Kansas City Chiefs, their offense will likely struggle to score as efficiently, making the under a more appealing bet.
Tip: Always check injury reports before placing your bet. Missing starters, especially in skill positions or on the offensive line, can drastically affect a team’s scoring potential.
4. Look at Weather Conditions
Weather can have a significant impact on a team’s ability to score points, especially if conditions are extreme. Heavy rain, snow, or high winds can make it difficult for teams to execute their game plan, particularly for pass-heavy offenses. When the weather is bad, the total points line may be harder to hit, especially for teams that rely on big passing plays.
- Example: If the Green Bay Packers are playing in a snowstorm at Lambeau Field, betting the under on their total points might be a smart move, as passing will be more difficult, and the game might turn into a low-scoring affair.
Tip: Check the weather forecast before the game and adjust your bet if conditions are likely to affect the offensive output.
5. Focus on Game Flow and Pace
Certain teams play at a faster pace, running more plays per game and increasing their chances of scoring. On the other hand, slower-paced teams that rely on the running game or ball control might have fewer possessions, which limits their scoring potential.
- Example: A team like the Arizona Cardinals, who play at a fast pace, will have more opportunities to score, making them a good candidate for the over. Teams like the Baltimore Ravens, who focus on controlling the clock with the run game, may hit the under more often.
Tip: Pay attention to how many plays per game a team runs and how fast they move the ball. Faster-paced teams offer more opportunities to score points.
Best Teams for Betting on Total Team Points
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have one of the most potent offenses in the league, regularly scoring above their team points line. With Patrick Mahomes leading the offense, they are always a good bet to hit the over, especially against weaker defenses.
2. Buffalo Bills
Led by Josh Allen, the Bills are known for their explosive offense and ability to score in bunches. They’re a strong pick for the over in most matchups, particularly when facing teams with poor pass defenses.
3. Green Bay Packers
The Packers, with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, consistently put up points, especially against teams with weak secondaries. When Rodgers is on form, the Packers are likely to hit the over on their total points.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Tom Brady at the helm and a wealth of offensive weapons, the Buccaneers are a reliable bet to score a lot of points, especially when facing weaker defensive teams. They are often a solid pick for the over in favorable matchups.
5. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals play at one of the fastest paces in the NFL, giving them more opportunities to score points. Their up-tempo style makes them a strong team for betting the over on total team points, particularly against slower, run-heavy teams.
Common Mistakes to Avoid with Total Team Points Bets
1. Overvaluing Recent Performance
Just because a team had a big scoring game the week before doesn’t mean they’ll repeat that performance. Always consider the matchup and current conditions rather than relying on past results alone.
- Tip: Look at the overall trends for the season rather than one or two standout games.
2. Ignoring Defensive Adjustments
Some defenses may struggle early in the season but improve as the year progresses. Don’t ignore recent defensive adjustments that could impact a team’s scoring potential.
- Tip: Check how opposing defenses have performed in recent weeks, not just their overall season stats.
3. Betting Based on Reputation
Betting on teams based purely on their reputation can lead to mistakes. Even elite offenses struggle against top defenses, so always consider the specific matchup rather than betting on big names alone.
Final Thoughts on Betting Total Team Points
Betting on total team points can be a profitable strategy when you have a clear understanding of team offenses, matchups, and game conditions. By focusing on offensive efficiency, analyzing defensive matchups, and considering key factors like injuries and weather, you can consistently find value in this market.
- Target high-efficiency offenses: Teams like the Chiefs and Bills regularly exceed their total points line.
- Factor in defensive matchups: Weak defenses often allow teams to surpass their projected point totals.
- Consider game flow and weather: Fast-paced teams and favorable weather conditions are key to hitting the over on total points.
With the right approach, betting on total team points can add an exciting and profitable dimension to your NFL betting strategy.