NBA prop bets, short for proposition bets, are one of the most exciting ways to engage with basketball betting. Unlike traditional wagers on game outcomes or point spreads, prop bets focus on specific events or player performances. They allow you to bet on anything from how many points a player will score to the number of three-pointers made in a game.
For beginners, prop bets offer a fun and versatile entry point into sports betting. This guide will explain how NBA prop bets work, the most common types, and how to make smart bets.
What Are NBA Prop Bets?
Prop bets are wagers on specific outcomes within a game that may not directly impact the final score. They are divided into two main categories:
1. Player Props
These bets focus on individual player performances and are perfect for fans who love analyzing player stats.
- Examples:
- LeBron James Over/Under 27.5 points.
- Steph Curry to make 4+ three-pointers.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo to record a triple-double.
2. Team Props
These bets involve team-specific outcomes, such as scoring or performance milestones.
- Examples:
- Lakers Over 115.5 team points.
- Warriors to make 15+ three-pointers.
- Which team will score first?
Why Prop Bets Are Perfect for Beginners
- Player Focus: If you’re familiar with individual players’ strengths and tendencies, prop bets give you an edge.
- Entertainment Value: Betting on props keeps games exciting, even when the outcome is decided.
- Low Commitment: Props often require smaller wagers, making them accessible for bettors with limited budgets.
Common Types of NBA Prop Bets
1. Points Props
Wager on how many points a player will score in a game.
- Example: Kevin Durant Over/Under 30.5 points.
- Bet Over if you believe Durant will score 31 or more points.
- Bet Under if you think he’ll score 30 or fewer points.
2. Rebounds and Assists Props
Focus on a player’s contributions beyond scoring.
- Examples:
- Nikola Jokić Over/Under 12.5 rebounds.
- Chris Paul Over/Under 9.5 assists.
3. Three-Point Props
Bet on how many three-pointers a player or team will make.
- Examples:
- Steph Curry Over/Under 4.5 three-pointers.
- Warriors Over/Under 15.5 team three-pointers.
4. Combination Props
Wager on a combination of player stats, such as points, rebounds, and assists.
- Example: Luka Dončić Over/Under 45.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
5. Special Props
Unique bets offered during high-profile games or playoffs.
- Examples:
- Will a player record a triple-double?
- First player to score in the game.
- Total points scored in the first half.
How to Bet on NBA Props
1. Do Your Research
Analyze player performance trends, team matchups, and recent stats to make informed bets.
- Example: If a team struggles to defend centers, bet on an opposing big man to exceed his points or rebound prop.
2. Consider Game Context
Matchup dynamics, injuries, and team strategies impact player performance.
- Example: A high-scoring game with two fast-paced teams may favor Over bets on points and three-pointers.
3. Shop for the Best Lines
Different sportsbooks may offer slightly different prop lines or odds. Compare multiple sportsbooks to find the best value.
- Example: One sportsbook may set James Harden’s points prop at 23.5, while another sets it at 24.5.
4. Start with Simple Props
Stick to straightforward Over/Under props when starting out. Avoid complex props until you’re more experienced.
5. Track Your Bets
Keep a record of your prop bets, including wager size, outcomes, and reasoning. This helps you refine your strategy over time.
Example of a Smart Prop Bet
Matchup: Warriors vs. Suns
- Prop: Steph Curry Over 4.5 three-pointers (-110).
- Research:
- Curry has hit 5+ three-pointers in 7 of his last 10 games.
- The Suns rank 25th in defending three-point shots.
- Bet: Based on Curry’s shooting streak and the Suns’ defensive struggles, betting Over 4.5 makes sense.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Betting Without Research
- Don’t place prop bets based on gut feelings. Use stats and analysis to guide your choices.
- Ignoring Matchups
- Always consider how opposing teams and players match up. A player’s past performance may not translate against a tough defense.
- Overloading on Props
- Stick to a few well-researched props per game rather than spreading your bankroll thin.
Tools to Improve Your Prop Betting
- Stat Platforms: Use tools like Basketball Reference or NBA Advanced Stats for detailed player data.
- Betting Trackers: Apps like Action Network help you monitor your bets and analyze results.
- Odds Comparison Sites: Compare prop odds across sportsbooks to ensure you’re getting the best value.
Final Thoughts: Start Small, Think Big
NBA prop bets are a beginner-friendly way to enjoy basketball betting while focusing on players and specific game moments. By doing your research, starting with simple props, and staying disciplined, you can build a solid foundation for success. Remember, betting is a marathon, not a sprint—focus on consistency, and the wins will follow.