NFL futures betting is one of the most exciting and rewarding ways to stay engaged throughout the entire football season. Whether you’re betting on who will win the Super Bowl, which team will come out on top in their division, or who will win MVP, futures bets allow you to make early predictions and lock in value before the rest of the season unfolds. But making smart futures bets isn’t about random guesses—it requires strategy, timing, and plenty of research.
So how do you place early-season wagers that actually pay off when it’s all said and done? Here’s a guide to mastering NFL futures betting.
What Are NFL Futures Bets?
A futures bet is exactly what it sounds like: a wager placed on an event that will be decided in the future, typically at the end of the season. The most common NFL futures bets include:
- Super Bowl winner
- Conference and division winners
- MVP, Rookie of the Year, or Defensive Player of the Year
- Over/Under season win totals
These bets are typically placed before the season starts, but odds remain available throughout the year, and they change as the season progresses based on team performance, injuries, and other factors.
Why Futures Bets Offer Value
Futures betting offers a unique opportunity to find value before the market fully adjusts to what’s happening during the season. By getting in early, you can lock in favorable odds that might shift as the season unfolds.
- Example: Before the 2020 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were listed as longshots to win the Super Bowl. Once they signed Tom Brady, their odds shortened significantly. If you bet on them before the Brady signing, you could’ve secured much better value.
The trick with futures betting is timing your bets well. The earlier you place the wager, the higher the risk (because so much can happen), but the higher the potential payout if you’re right.
Key Strategies for Placing Smart Futures Bets
1. Look for Undervalued Teams
Every season, there are a few teams that the public and sportsbooks undervalue early on. Maybe they had a rough season the year before, but they’ve made key offseason moves that improve their chances. These teams are prime candidates for futures bets.
- Tip: Focus on teams with strong offseasons—whether through free agency, draft picks, or coaching changes—that can drastically improve their chances. Pay attention to teams with emerging talent, especially if the public hasn’t caught on yet.
2. Bet Early for Maximum Value
The earlier you place a futures bet, the better your odds will be. Once the season starts and teams start performing, the odds will adjust to reflect what’s happening. If you wait too long, you might miss out on the best value.
- Tip: Place your bets before the preseason ends or during the first couple of weeks of the regular season. This is when you can still find solid value before the odds begin to shrink.
3. Don’t Overreact to Early-Season Results
It’s easy to get caught up in the hype of a team that starts the season 3-0 or 4-1, but futures betting is a long-term game. You need to consider the entire season and what might happen down the stretch.
- Tip: Avoid overreacting to small sample sizes. A hot start doesn’t always mean a team will sustain their performance. Look at strength of schedule, key injuries, and whether the team has depth to maintain their early-season form.
4. Consider the Playoff Path
When betting on futures, especially for conference or Super Bowl winners, it’s important to consider not only how a team will perform during the regular season but also their path to and through the playoffs.
- Example: A team with an easy division might be more likely to secure a high playoff seed, which could give them home-field advantage, making their path to the Super Bowl easier.
Best NFL Futures Bets to Consider
1. Super Bowl Champion
This is the most popular futures bet, and it’s easy to see why—everyone wants to predict who will win the big game. Look for teams with strong rosters, veteran leadership, and depth, because injuries and long playoff runs can derail even the best teams.
2. Conference and Division Winners
Betting on a team to win their conference or division can be a safer alternative to betting on the Super Bowl. The odds aren’t as long, but the path is clearer, and there’s often more consistency in these markets.
- Tip: Research the division and conference matchups closely. A team with a favorable schedule in a weak division might be more likely to win their division, even if they’re not favorites to win the Super Bowl.
3. MVP, Rookie of the Year, and Player Awards
Player futures like MVP and Rookie of the Year can offer great value, especially if you’re betting on young, emerging players or established veterans in new systems. Watch for players in offensive systems that could produce big numbers.
- Tip: Look for players in high-profile positions like quarterbacks for MVP or top draft picks for Rookie of the Year. Their narrative matters as much as their performance.
4. Win Totals (Over/Under)
Another popular futures bet is wagering on a team’s season win total. This is a great way to bet on a team’s performance without having to pick them to win the Super Bowl or their division. Teams with new coaches or rookies might be undervalued in this market.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
1. Ignoring Injuries
Futures bets are made months in advance, and injuries happen all the time in the NFL. Betting on teams with fragile star players can be risky, so always consider injury history when placing futures bets.
- Tip: Focus on teams with depth. Even if a star player goes down, teams with deep rosters are more likely to maintain their performance over the course of the season.
2. Chasing Longshots
While it’s tempting to place a futures bet on a huge longshot for the big payout, these bets rarely hit. There’s a reason teams are listed as longshots—their chances of winning are slim.
- Tip: Don’t chase long odds for the sake of it. Look for value in teams that are being undervalued but still have a legitimate shot at winning.
The Long Game: Patience and Planning
Futures betting isn’t for the impatient. These bets take time to play out, and it’s important to think long-term. The key is finding value early, placing bets before the market shifts, and keeping an eye on injuries and other developments throughout the season.
- Research offseason moves and emerging talent.
- Place your bets early for the best value.
- Don’t overreact to early-season results—consider the full season.
If you plan your futures strategy right, you’ll be able to sit back and enjoy watching your predictions come to life as the season unfolds.