When it comes to NFL betting, player performance props are where things can get interesting. Sure, betting on the final score is fine, but there’s a lot more action in focusing on how a player will perform in specific areas. This includes everything from how many yards they’ll rush or pass for, to how many touchdowns they’ll score. Player performance props let you zero in on individual matchups and trends that might otherwise fly under the radar, and they can be a great way to find value if you know what to look for.
What Are Player Performance Props?
At its core, a player performance prop is a bet on a specific stat or accomplishment by a player during the game. Instead of betting on the outcome of the game, you’re wagering on individual players and how they perform. Examples include:
- Total Passing Yards for a quarterback (over/under)
- Total Rushing Yards for a running back
- Touchdowns Scored by any player
- Receptions for a wide receiver
These types of bets allow you to focus on the player’s performance rather than the team’s, which can sometimes be easier to predict, especially if the game looks like it’ll be lopsided or unpredictable.
Key Things to Consider
1. Matchups Matter (A Lot)
If you’re betting on a player to have a big game, the most important factor to look at is the matchup. A running back going up against a weak defensive line that’s been giving up big yardage? That’s your signal to take the over on their rushing yards.
- Defensive Strengths and Weaknesses: Is the opposing team good at shutting down the run but weak against the pass? This will heavily influence which player props are worth betting on.
- Injuries: A star defensive player being out could make it easier for the opposing offense to rack up yards.
2. Player Usage Trends
Understanding a player’s role within their team is crucial. Some players are consistently targeted by their quarterback or always get the ball in red zone situations. Betting on these high-usage players gives you a better shot at winning.
- Look at Targets: Wide receivers who get a lot of targets are more likely to hit their receptions and yardage props.
- Touchdown Reliance: Running backs who get the bulk of the carries, especially near the goal line, are prime candidates for touchdown bets.
3. The Game Script
Game flow, or “game script,” is key when placing player performance prop bets. Teams that fall behind early will likely pass more, which could lead to higher passing and receiving yards, while a team with a lead will run more to control the clock.
- If the game’s expected to be close: Both the passing and rushing game should be in full swing.
- Blowouts: Expect the losing team to throw more, which could inflate the quarterback and receiver numbers.
Types of Player Performance Props You Should Target
1. Rushing Yards Prop
Betting on rushing yards can be a solid bet when you know the running back is likely to see a high volume of carries. Always consider the opposing team’s run defense.
2. Passing Yards Prop
A quarterback’s total passing yards are often set around their season average, but matchups against weak secondaries can make the over a great bet.
3. Touchdown Scorer
Touchdown props are all about finding the player who’s likely to get the ball in the red zone. Running backs are obvious targets, but don’t overlook tight ends or even quarterbacks who like to run the ball in themselves.
Key Stats to Focus On
- Yards Per Attempt (YPA): For both rushing and passing, this can give you insight into how efficient a player is. If a running back averages five yards per carry and he’s likely to get 15 carries, betting the over on 75 rushing yards might be a smart move.
- Target Share: For wide receivers and tight ends, knowing how often they’re targeted is key. A player who’s targeted 10 times a game is more likely to hit the over on receptions and yards.
- Red Zone Touches: When betting on touchdowns, focus on how often a player is used in the red zone. Players who are consistently getting goal-line touches or red zone targets are your best bets for scoring a TD.
Wrapping It Up
Betting on player performance props is all about understanding matchups, player roles, and game flow. If you focus on these factors, you’ll be able to find solid value in these markets. Whether it’s rushing yards, passing yards, or touchdowns, there are plenty of opportunities to make smart bets.
Remember:
- Matchups are everything. Study how the defense performs against specific positions.
- Player usage trends are your friend. High-usage players offer safer bets.
- Game script influences whether a team will run or pass more, so always consider how the game is likely to play out.