The Race to Points bet is one of the more exciting wagers in NFL betting, offering a fast-paced and strategic way to engage with the game. Instead of betting on the final outcome, you’re wagering on which team will be the first to reach a specific number of points—usually 10, 20, or 30 points. This type of bet is all about predicting which team will start hot, and it adds a unique element to your betting strategy that focuses on early-game performance.
Race to Points betting allows you to capitalize on teams known for strong starts or take advantage of mismatches in the first half. Let’s break down how to approach these bets, how to spot the right teams, and the best strategies to win with Race to Points bets in NFL games.
What Is a Race to Points Bet?
In a Race to Points bet, you’re wagering on which team will be the first to score a specific number of points. These bets are usually offered in increments like:
- Race to 10 points
- Race to 20 points
- Race to 30 points
Your bet cashes if the team you choose hits that point total first, regardless of how the rest of the game unfolds. The great thing about Race to Points bets is that you don’t have to wait until the final whistle—you’ll know if you’ve won as soon as your team reaches the designated point threshold.
Key Strategies for Race to Points Bets
1. Identify Fast-Starting Teams
One of the most critical factors in Race to Points betting is identifying teams that consistently start games strong. Some teams are known for piling on points early in the game, while others might take a few quarters to get going. Researching teams’ first-quarter and first-half scoring stats is essential to making smart Race to Points bets.
- Example: The Kansas City Chiefs are notorious for their fast starts, often jumping out to early leads. If you’re betting on the Chiefs in a Race to 10 or 20 points, you’re likely in good hands, as they tend to score early and often.
Tip: Look for teams that score heavily in the first half. These are typically teams with explosive offenses and strong game-planning that allows them to dominate early.
2. Factor in Defensive Weaknesses
It’s not just about the team you’re betting on—it’s also crucial to consider the opposing defense. Teams facing weak defenses are much more likely to reach point thresholds quickly. If you spot a matchup where a top offense is going up against a defense that allows early scoring drives, you’ve found a prime opportunity for a Race to Points bet.
- Example: If the Buffalo Bills are playing a team with a struggling secondary, like the Detroit Lions, betting on the Bills to hit 20 points first could be a smart move.
Tip: Use defensive rankings to identify teams that allow a lot of first-half points. Teams with poor red-zone defense or weak pass rushes are especially vulnerable to giving up points early.
3. Game Flow and Matchups Matter
Some matchups are more conducive to Race to Points bets than others. Games where both teams feature high-powered offenses and weak defenses are likely to see a lot of scoring early, making it easier to reach point thresholds. On the other hand, defensive battles may drag out, with both teams struggling to reach 10 points.
- Example: A matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be a great candidate for a Race to 30 points bet, as both teams have elite offenses capable of scoring quickly.
Tip: Look at how teams match up on both sides of the ball. If both teams are strong offensively but weak defensively, there’s a good chance one team will hit 20 or 30 points quickly.
4. Use Race to Points as a Hedge Bet
One interesting way to use Race to Points bets is as a hedging strategy. For example, if you’ve placed a bet on a team to win outright, but you’re worried they might not cover the spread or win in the end, a Race to Points bet can help secure an early profit if they come out strong, even if they fade late in the game.
- Example: If you’re unsure whether the Baltimore Ravens will cover a large spread, but you believe they’ll start hot, betting on them to win the Race to 10 points offers an opportunity to cash in early, regardless of how the game finishes.
Tip: Hedge Race to Points bets with full-game bets if you’re confident in a team’s early-game performance but uncertain about the entire 60 minutes.
Best Teams for Race to Points Bets
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are one of the most reliable teams for Race to Points bets, especially in the first half of games. With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, they have the offensive firepower to score in bunches and reach 10, 20, or 30 points quickly.
2. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are another strong candidate for Race to Points bets, thanks to their aggressive passing game led by Josh Allen. They frequently jump out to early leads, especially against weaker competition.
3. Green Bay Packers
With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the Packers are known for their efficient offense, making them a great team to target for Race to Points wagers. They can strike quickly, and their offensive balance often allows them to reach point thresholds before their opponents.
4. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys, with a high-powered offense and weapons like Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and CeeDee Lamb, are often fast starters. In matchups against weaker defenses, they are a solid option for reaching point milestones early in the game.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are always a threat to score early and often. Their potent passing game, combined with strong coaching, makes them a great team for Race to Points bets, particularly when facing teams with weaker secondaries.
Common Mistakes to Avoid in Race to Points Betting
1. Ignoring Game Flow
Not every game is a shootout. Some matchups are low-scoring, defensive battles, and betting on Race to Points in these games can be risky. Always consider the overall game flow before placing your wager.
2. Betting Based Solely on Offense
While it’s easy to focus on the offense when making Race to Points bets, defense matters just as much. Teams with strong defenses are less likely to allow quick scores, making it harder for their opponents to reach point thresholds.
3. Overestimating Point Thresholds
It can be tempting to aim for higher thresholds like Race to 30 points, but these bets can be riskier in games with evenly matched teams. Stick to lower thresholds when unsure, as teams often reach 10 or 20 points much faster than 30.
Final Thoughts on Race to Points Betting
Race to Points bets add a layer of excitement to NFL betting, offering a fast and strategic way to wager on team performance. By focusing on teams with explosive offenses, analyzing defensive weaknesses, and considering game flow, you can make smart Race to Points bets that hit more often.
- Target fast-starting teams: Focus on teams like the Chiefs and Bills that score early and often.
- Consider weak defenses: Teams facing poor defenses are more likely to win Race to Points bets.
- Use as a hedge: Race to Points bets can be used to secure early profits, even if the full-game outcome is less certain.
With the right research and strategy, Race to Points bets can provide quick returns and become a valuable part of your NFL betting approach.